Are Vintage Flying Jackets Investments?

[saunders]

This discussion began in the Ebay/Auction section of this forum:

Very rare A2s and many painted A2s have held their price quite well in the current climate as they are seen as investments

Investments? Short term, yes. Long term, only as long as there are enough baby boomers still buying.

Okay, I know this subject is an unending source of speculation and debate in the collecting community of all forms of militaria, but when you look at the lion's share of buyers, they are boomers, and younger generations are not climbing on board in enough numbers to fill in for the losses via attrition that will develop as boomers unload collectibles and/or die off.

It's true there is a reasonably good amount of young people (really young) interested in living history, reenacting, paint ball and air soft, but these kids will need to want to spend money on the genuine artifacts one day if the collectibles are to even hold value, and these kids need to turn out in greater numbers more than they are right now. There is also the interest outside the USA, where interest is quite good among the youth and only lack of money precludes greater purchase interest. But there are wayyyyyy more collectors in the USA than anywhere else in the world, thus wayyyyyy more collectibles in the USA that need to be absorbed by others one day.

Superb stuff will always sell; I can't imagine a named and documented, reinforced and gas-impregnated para jacket and trousers that made the D-Day jump not having good value 100 years from now. But how few are these? You only need a few interested buyers to keep these items in high value, which is my point about only the best appreciating in value. All of the stuff that only is "great" or even just "good," I'm not so sure about. I do think A-2 jackets have an excellent chance of holding SOME value, as there is a crossover of interest from the fashion community and in collectors of classic Americana (mostly outside the USA), but not enough interest to keep values high for all of the many A-2s that exist - again, only the true gems will hold real value, the A-2s that today might be selling for $2, 500 and up. And the A-2s with documented EXCEPTIONAL history or celebrity or amazing artwork, especially art that screams of the innocence of youth and young America and Americans going off to fight WWII (Bugs Bunny, Donald Duck, pinup girls, etc.), should still hold good value. And related aviation items are all but dead at the moment, which includes so-so and poor A-2 jackets, though Ebay continues to outperform the market in this regard.

I 've always maintained that buying these collectibles should be done with disposable income that really is disposable. Treat the purchase like a superb dinner out or a vacation - you're buying an experience, albeit one you can enjoy every day. If you can actually get your money back one day, well, that's a bonus. Investing in militaria is very, very risky and speculative unless you are the one who buys the item at the garage sale.

Saunders

 

[havocpaul]

Interesting discussion and points made. I have been collecting, buying/selling since the late 1970's and have witnessed peaks and troughs, not just with A-2's and flight jackets but also rock and pop memorabilia and other collectables. As with everything, at certain times trends in collecting and demand can artificially push prices up for short periods, during the 1980's the Japanese collectors wanted all things A-2 jackets and so were willing to pay sometimes silly prices to buy what they wanted, they had the money so paid the price. I've seen this fluctations balance out more times than they remain high, eBay has at times given an artificial 'reading' of items worth..I still find it funny the recent selling of a copy of the Eastman Golden Book for an outrageous amount on eBay only for there be a swarm of follow up listings assuming their copies would also reach such dizzy heights! Whenever there's a recession people look for things to put their money (assuming they have any!) in. Art, classic cars, antiques can all buck the trend at these times but as to whether they are long-term investments, that is uncertain. Not that long ago people thought buying 'mint and boxed' toys would bring them great riches only to find the market fall rapidly, kit collectors too especially when old moulds were discovered and reissues flooded the market. The old antique dealers' saying "quality always sells" remains true though. I would hope most jacket collectors buy primarily for their interest and passion for the jackets and their heritage rather than lock them away for a time when they might be worth more and give a large return money wise.

 

[Anonymous]

Well, I might be wrong as I am no expert, but I recall four years ago getting a larger size 44 46 in good condition for under or about a thousand US. Now it's under or about 1500. generally speaking.
Not as good an investment as gold, but you have to take into consideration the people that buy, do not only buy as an investment , but as a hobby they enjoy. There are many guys that are younger than us old folks buying this stuff, so age may not play as big a roll in collecting. Disposable income a factor for sure. If there was a down market it has at the very least leveled out, as I am seeing some big figures in the market. Maybe one of the changes is that jackets in poor quality are not bringing as much as before, however the prime condition, and or jackets with history are bringing more in the market.

 

[Roughwear]

What motivates people to buy vintage flying jackets is interesting. Some buy as collectors who want to add a jacket to their collection. I would put myself in this category. Others buy the odd original in an attempt to re-live 1940s nostalgia. Some people buy to re-sell at a profit. A few buy originals in order to use them as a pattern for an accurate repro and I know Platon does this. There are those out there who buy them as investments, and here the really rare jackets, often with historical significance, or in near mint condition are highly sought-after. Will they hold their value in a year's time or ten year's time-who knows, but it has more appeal than investing in stocks and shares! Fortunately there are many excellent repros on the market to satisfy re-enactors!

 

[flyboy]

As long as a repro A2 with the nametag HILTS attracts more viewers and buyers than an original A2 with no named history, I do not think it's a great investment in the long run. The next generations are - unfortunately - without knowledge and/or interest in WW!!. The real WWII - that is.
I better step down from my soapbox before I really gets started...

 

[ButteMT61]

Great thread!
A good investment? No. A good buy and something you'll likely get money out of if you sell it? Maybe. It's a rare item that can be (carefully) used and still hold value. Most collectibles are something that sit on shelves and get looked at. I do agree though that we're on top of the WWII bell curve. Once "we" are too old and our kids start pillaging our closets to free some space, the buyers may have mostly dried up. There are still lots of kids that appreciate history and the WWII era, but not as many in our age group.
I think it will also see comebacks now and then in "fashion". Most things do at some point. But kids these days are ot taught that things like WWI/WWII were heroic and valant efforts - war is bad; military is bad. That is the mantra taught and kids would be outcast if wearing such things. That's my take. I buy as I honestly love the style and look. The history speaks for itself. For us. Enjoy while we can fellas. The world moves on...

 

[dmar836]

Right now I actually feel that the various things I have collected have outperformed the stock market in many ways. I know I could liquidate much of my stuff, AAF included, for a decent profit. This is also in consideration that I pay retail and don't ambulance chase, etc.
On the other hand a great point is the cultural changes that could influence the value of collectibles. Remember when baseball cards, even certain current issued cards, we're selling for hundreds? Sure an original Ruth card will always bring lots but it is relative to all other cards and that whole market has become diminished like Pokemon or other "created" collectibles.
It will be interesting to watch for sure.
Dave

 

[ButteMT61]

Exactly. It's about timing with collectibles. Even cars go through phases - muscle cars, "foreign race cars", 50's, etc.
Same with motorcycles. Timing is the key IF it's bought as an investment.
My wife has a lot of Victorian glass. Right now, it's weak. A few years back, it was crazy. It actually coincided with the housing boom.
If you buy anything as an investment, you'd better also enjoy it as you may or may not get your money, let alone more money, out of it.
I have coins that I've collected since I was in single digits. They've gone up very little in value compared the the metal they're made of. But they belonged to my grandparents and I also love them.
I never collected anything that I also didn't have a real liking for. We can always sell things if we need money, but I don't count on making money unless I get a really good deal...

 

[grommet]

I think that the interest in things WW II will wane, and maybe sooner than we expect. Although this era holds a strong emotional sway on men growing up in the late 40's, 50's and early 60's, there was a a marked drop off in interest thereafter. This is also true of enthusiasm in military history in general, including that of the American Civil War, which was a topic of very active interest to boys my age and is now largely the bailiwick of aging reenactors. I also don't expect a carry-over effect from the major wars since WW II, which differ in many ways from the earlier ones, including a lack of engagement on the part of the civilian population and the often ambiguous outcomes.

Getting back to the topic of collecting, although not entirely analogous to vintage jacket collecting, many years ago my son and I collected vintage boys adventure books that I had read (often in sanitized verions) as a child, including the Hardy Boys, Tom Swift etc. At the time, eBay auctions were very competitive. I recently looked at what was being offered on eBay and was surprised at how little some of these are going for and how many are being sold as "buy it now". It isn't hard to imagine that people my age have finished their collecting or are unloading their collections.

It is hard to imagine that an A-2 jacket which has no special distinction, apart from having been manufactured during WW II, will continue to sell for $2500 or more.

 

[dmar836]

My wife made a good point. I mentioned that today's youth are showing little interest in collecting and that, like civil war history/collecting, interest in WWII collecting may diminish. She said that the difference is that WWII was the first war thoroughly filmed and that alone might keep it drawing more interest than previous wars.
She's not only smarter than me, she isn't nearly as long-winded!

Dave

 

[Lebensgefahr]

Personally i`m of the opinion that long standing collectors who have built up their collections over a long period of time are in an excellent position with regard to resale.From an RAF collecting point of view,even if all the items were bought at market value at the time (many years ago) ,prices have risen such that a very healthy profit could be made on most items.
For people paying today`s prices i think that recouping your money would be the most realistic expectation and only then if the item were in very good condition or with proven provenance.
From a personal point of view i could not afford to replace the collection i have if i had to pay today`s prices.
I have had this conversation with a friend of mine who is a well known aviation dealer and i reckoned that prices would reach a peak and then stop but he doesn`t agree with this and thinks prices will continue to rise,and judging by the prices he gets on his website which go up with each new listing (and the items sell) it looks as though he`s right.
From what i have seen i think aviation memorabilia is a sound investment which is fetching high prices and has been for quite some time.Having said that,quality and scarcity of an item is important.Quality will always sell if realistically priced.
The one drawback i have seen is that once an item passes the £1000 mark a large percentage of the market drops away for one reason or another,but having said that there still seem to be enough people willing to pay the big bucks for the right item.
From a personal point of view,while the financial side of it has to be considered that`s not why i collect,it`s my passion,the fact that it has turned into what appears to be a sound investment is just an added bonus.

Just my five penneth :?

 

[Roughwear]

Geoff, I agree 100% with your observations about RAF flying gear. Decent Irvins still fetch good prices even in the summer. Poorer examples perhaps fetch less than they did a couple of years ago. The price paid for decent sized 1936 RAF boots seems to have increased significantly just in the last year if Ebay auctions are any guide.

 

[ButteMT61]

Well, my house went up 350k in value right before it then again lost 235k. I don't think this bubble has burst - maybe not even in the next 5 years, but given all the other examples of collectibles, it's fairly inevitable it will at some point. The key is to buy to enjoy, not get rich. Then, you can't lose...

 

[saunders]

This is proving to be a really good topic we can all sink our teeth, I think, and I'm really enjoying the many points of view, opinions and arguments made. I think you all are right - anything that's been said could prove to be the case. The consensus here is clearly that these are not investments, or not good investments, which I'd be inclined to support, but I could also support the notion that WWII is just too big of an event to have long-term loss of interest.

Firearms collecting has remained solid since it began a few hundred years back and there's no bigger market in the world for this genre than here in the USA, where generations pass down highly valuable examples and complete collections to their descendants and these descendants add to the collections with their own disposable income. Militaria collecting as we know it (and most other types of collecting) is, on the other hand, a unique activity of the 20th century with no parallel to study as with that of firearms. WWII militaria may experience some losses in the short run, and it could be a very long short run that skips several generations, but I'd bet it would rebound at some later date in time when those who have any connection to the events and players are all just dust.

Collectible toys of our childhood, model kits, baseball cards, etc., were largely run up due to the nostalgia of those who lived in the era, which isn't all that dissimilar to WWII collectibles, but the toys et al don't have any historical significance even remotely close WWII. Civil War collectibles still have a market, it's just that the really, really great pieces (those we all agree will always be desirable to someone) got way too costly for those who were not at the very top of the feeding chain. Where did many of the Civil War collectors go? They turned to WWII, and they helped run up the prices for WWII collectibles (mostly that really, really good stuff with amazing history) in the last 14 years or so. And so "Saving Private Ryan" created a whole new market, then "Band of Brothers," and then the History Channel, and computer games, and Ebay and the internet at large, and RC models, and on and on it goes ...

And now we've seen the price run up to stupid levels in Third Reich collectibles (and things were stupid even years back). So what happens? We zombies of the Reich who have been used to dropping wads of money on often-ridiculous things suddenly find WWII GI helmets cool. And if they have funky camo that sorta, kinda reminds us of that M-35 DD we paid 4 Gs for ten years ago, well, then we bid 2 Gs and it is just fine and we think we have a bargain.

There are many lemmings in collecting and many collectors of the overly popular and arcane. Yesiree, if you want to be nearly certain of having no one to sell your pricey collectibles to in 10-20 years, by all means, buy Third Reich goodies! Add some nylon USAF jackets and pricey Nam-made insignia to the mix and you will have fully disposed of your disposable income.

What else is scary? Huge, powerful collections built over time that infinitely few can afford to buy today as a whole or even piecemeal. It's sorta okay for such collections to hit the market now, but not so good in 15 years.

So what should we buy and when should we sell? Well, aviation is depressed right now, so it's a good time to buy, but not to sell unless you bought it cheaply. As for selling, sell that which is hot. Yes, the hot stuff may get hotter, but very, very few ever buy at the extreme bottom and sell at the extreme top.

As has been said in several posts, buy what you can afford to lose and buy what you love. Top-quality WWII American militaria is gonna survive the test of time, though it may not sell for the money we currently associate with it or that we did even 15 years ago. Buy quality and buy AMERICAN, which is not to diminish the Allied contribution to WWII, but the facts remain that it's all about the USA.

I really doubt our collections will be put out on the trash by many of our kids or grandkids if we don't sell before the collecting market tanks. What say you, fellas? Somebody show me where I'm wrong.

 

[ButteMT61]

The US and German stuff has had a premium for years. I think other items are creeping upwards though. My son and I have been acquiring Soviet gear. It's very reasonable and going up as others did some years back.
I still don't think it will last forever. I believe once the "we" are gone or near gone, the prices will be plummeting. I know for me, I can't stand Civil War stuff, sans some period gear that isn't necessarily war-related. Never had interest in it really. I think that genre peaked a while back.
Some of the 'Nam gear is getting decent prices, but it has a lot of baggage attached to it - which is ironic given how "desirable" the German gear is. Still don't see it getting huge like WWII US gear has.
I'm getting older, not younger. With that, things I buy I do so to use and/or enjoy. I'm too old to create a museum!

 

[wheat1479]

I watch the horsehide 1930s utility halfbelts and they also have jumped in price.From around 500-700 to last sale 2,650.00 for a black rare style trucker jacket.

 

[ButteMT61]

I watch the horsehide 1930s utility halfbelts and they also have jumped in price.From around 500-700 to last sale 2,650.00 for a black rare style trucker jacket.

Yeah, but those are not war-era-related. My son got one from hid grandfather when he passed last year. He put it up on ebay since it didn't fit for what he thought was a crazy BIN price of $850. It sold to a buyer in Japan in less than 10 minutes. He likely could have got 50% more for it! I think that sort of thing will always sell well. We all here know how hard it is to break in a jacket - esp when you have more than one!

 

[Estancia]

Sorry bit late to this convo, but its interesting that younger generations are being considered in regards to the future of collecting.

I'm in my early 20s and recently bought my first vintage a-2 (perry).

Why did i buy one? - Fashion

What people forget (especially on here) is that FASHION is a the key part of collecting and wearing vintage clothing for young people today not just buying as many jackets as possible for the sake of collecting. Its all about getting 'that look', yes, the heritage, authenticity etc is of course a part of it but at the end of the day its a look that just can not be replicated by 'highstreet/fashion' brands.

Its a timeless look, Ralph Lauren himself (before the fame) was wearing a pair of Levis and and a-2 jacket in the 1950s, a look still being worn today (see superfuture flight jacket thread if you dont believe me!) Similarly the hells angels were wearing USN deck jackets in the 1960s and today they are the thing to be seen in!

Ultimately vintage flight jackets appeal to two groups, collectors and fashion people and as long as the demand is there the price will always rise...which i why I feel a decent vintage jacket is a solid investment, nothing beats the real thing.

taking this convo to the next level....who knows in 50/60 years time people will be collecting the desert battle dress uniforms of today!

 

[Roughwear]

This is interesting about fashion. How often do you wear your 70 year old Perry A2? In the 1950s when RL wore his A2 it would have been around than 10-15 years old and there are many repros being worn today much older than this!

 

[saunders]

I mentioned the crossover interest from the fashion community when I began this thread, and while fashion interest will certainly help buoy the value of A-2s, that interest is not the same as collector interest. Collector interest cares about the zippers, the contractor and contract, variations, what percentage of the A-2 is still all original, presence of insignia and art, is the insignia painted or embroidered, was the embroidery done in England or Australia, what unit its from, the history of who wore it, and on and on it goes ... The fashion community only cares how it looks and if its wearable, IMO. Will they fuss if all parts are replaced or the label is missing? I doubt it. Do they differentiate between an A-2 that was one of 5, 000 made by Aero in 16160 contract vs. one of 50, 000 made in 15142? I hardly think so.

So, yes, fashion interest counts, and I'll take all of the interest we can get to keep values stable or increasing, but it would take a massive surge of interest in A-2 ownership from the fashion community to substantially influence the A-2 values, and without collector interest, that near-mint RW 16159 "Rough Wear" (aka Andrew) owns will just be a really nice A-2 in size 44 with a cool tiger patch.

Saunders